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␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓βS␈↓∧ Artificial Intelligence Laboratory, STANFORD UNIVERSITY, Stanford, California 94305

␈↓ ↓H␈↓∧Telephone 415 497-4430␈↓ 	ISeptember 10, 1977 




␈↓ ↓H␈↓Editor:
␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓↓New York Times␈↓
␈↓ ↓H␈↓229 West 43d St.
␈↓ ↓H␈↓N.Y. 10036

␈↓ ↓H␈↓To the Editor:

␈↓ ↓H␈↓        David␈α⊂Donald,␈α⊂the␈α⊂Warren␈α⊂Professor␈α⊂of␈α⊂American␈α⊂History␈α⊂at␈α⊂Harvard,␈α⊂tells␈α⊂us␈α⊂(op.␈α⊂ed.
␈↓ ↓H␈↓September 8 1977) that American history is irrelevant, because

␈↓ ↓H␈↓        ␈↓↓"Now␈α⊃the␈α⊃age␈α⊂of␈α⊃abundance␈α⊃has␈α⊃ended.␈α⊂ The␈α⊃people␈α⊃of␈α⊃plenty␈α⊂have␈α⊃become␈α⊃the␈α⊃people␈α⊂of
␈↓ ↓H␈↓↓paucity.␈α Our␈α
stores␈αof␈α
oil␈αand␈α
natural␈αgas␈α
are␈αrapidly␈α
running␈αout,␈α
and␈αother␈α
natural␈αresources␈α
will
␈↓ ↓H␈↓↓soon␈α
be␈α
exhausted.␈α
 If␈α
we␈α
save␈α∞what␈α
is␈α
left,␈α
we␈α
choke␈α
our␈α∞economy;␈α
if␈α
we␈α
use␈α
it,␈α
we␈α∞impoverish␈α
our
␈↓ ↓H␈↓↓posterity."␈↓

␈↓ ↓H␈↓        On the same page we have an advertisement from the Mobil Oil Company stating

␈↓ ↓H␈↓        ␈↓α"We␈αurge␈αthat␈α
the␈αnational␈αenergy␈α
debate␈αfocus␈αon␈α
the␈αparamount␈αissue:␈αdevelopment␈α
vs.
␈↓ ↓H␈↓αnon-development␈α∞of␈α∞U.S.␈α∞energy␈α∞supplies.␈α∞ We␈α∞believe␈α∞that␈α∞any␈α∞adverse␈α∞social␈α∂and␈α∞economic
␈↓ ↓H␈↓αconsequences␈α
of␈αdevelopment␈α
are␈αbeing␈α
grossly␈α
␈↓↓overestimated␈↓α␈αby␈α
many␈αin␈α
Washington␈αand␈α
that
␈↓ ↓H␈↓αthe␈α→adverse␈α→social␈α→and␈α→economic␈α→consequences␈α→of␈α→non-development␈α→are␈α~being␈α→grossly
␈↓ ↓H␈↓α␈↓↓underestimated"␈↓

␈↓ ↓H␈↓        The␈α
professor␈α∞and␈α
the␈α∞oil␈α
company␈α
are␈α∞not␈α
arguing␈α∞about␈α
precisely␈α
the␈α∞same␈α
point,␈α∞but␈α
I
␈↓ ↓H␈↓would␈αlike␈α
to␈αexplain␈α
why␈αI␈α
think␈αthe␈α
oil␈αcompany␈α
is,␈αon␈α
the␈αwhole,␈α
right,␈αand␈α
my␈αfellow␈α
professor
␈↓ ↓H␈↓is,␈α∞on␈α∞the␈α∞whole,␈α
mistaken.␈α∞ Moreover,␈α∞in␈α∞my␈α
view,␈α∞the␈α∞oil␈α∞company␈α
has␈α∞cogently␈α∞argued␈α∞for␈α
its
␈↓ ↓H␈↓view␈α∞in␈α∂a␈α∞series␈α∂of␈α∞advertisements,␈α∂while␈α∞the␈α∂professor␈α∞o≥ers␈α∂only␈α∞a␈α∂word␈α∞picture␈α∂that␈α∞assumes
␈↓ ↓H␈↓what␈α
it␈α∞must␈α
prove␈α∞and␈α
relies␈α∞for␈α
e≥ect␈α
on␈α∞derogatory␈α
phrases␈α∞like␈α
"people␈α∞of␈α
plenty".␈α∞ I␈α
realize
␈↓ ↓H␈↓that␈αfor␈αmany␈αreaders,␈αit␈αis␈αnot␈αrespectable␈αto␈αtake␈αseriously␈αan␈αargument␈αpresented␈αby␈αa␈αcompany
␈↓ ↓H␈↓in␈αan␈αadvertisement,␈αespecially␈αwhen␈αit␈αdisagrees␈αwith␈αa␈αprofessor.␈α Sorry␈αabout␈αthat,␈α
but␈αhonesty
␈↓ ↓H␈↓requires evaluating an argument on its merits, regardless of its source.

␈↓ ↓H␈↓        I␈α∞maintain␈α∞that␈α∞American␈α
resources␈α∞are␈α∞adequate␈α∞to␈α
maintain␈α∞several␈α∞times␈α∞the␈α
American
␈↓ ↓H␈↓population␈α
at␈α
several␈α
times␈α
the␈α
present␈αmaterial␈α
prosperity␈α
for␈α
many␈α
hundreds␈α
of␈α
millions␈αof␈α
years.
␈↓ ↓H␈↓This␈α
estimate␈αdoes␈α
not␈α
assume␈αthe␈α
discovery␈α
of␈αnew␈α
scienti≡c␈α
phenomena␈αon␈α
which␈αtechnology␈α
can
␈↓ ↓H␈↓be␈α
based.␈α
 It␈α
also␈αassumes␈α
that␈α
our␈α
descendants␈αin␈α
the␈α
next␈α
thousand␈αyears␈α
will␈α
make␈α
at␈α
least␈αas
␈↓ ↓H␈↓much␈α⊃progress␈α⊃as␈α⊃we␈α⊃have␈α⊃made␈α⊃in␈α⊃the␈α⊂last␈α⊃hundred␈α⊃and␈α⊃that␈α⊃our␈α⊃society␈α⊃will␈α⊃permit␈α⊂these
␈↓ ↓H␈↓advances to be made and used.

␈↓ ↓H␈↓        Many␈α
thousands␈α
of␈α
di≥erent␈α
materials␈α
are␈α
used␈α
in␈α
our␈α
economy,␈α
and␈α
a␈α∞full␈α
demonstration
␈↓ ↓H␈↓that␈αour␈αdescendants␈αcan␈αget␈αby␈αwould␈αbe␈αvery␈αlong.␈α Moreover,␈αwhile␈αshort␈αrange␈αproblems␈αhave
␈↓ ↓H␈↓αEditor:␈↓ ¬LSeptember 10, 1977␈↓ 
nPage 2␈↓ 

␈↓ ↓H␈↓received␈α
much␈α
study,␈α
there␈α
hasn't␈α
been␈α
much␈α
incentive␈α
to␈α
work␈α
out␈α
long␈α
range␈α
solutions,␈α
on␈α
the
␈↓ ↓H␈↓sensible␈αgrounds␈αthat␈αour␈αdistant␈αdescendants␈αwill␈αhave␈αabout␈αas␈αmuch␈αinterest␈αin␈αour␈αopinions␈αas
␈↓ ↓H␈↓we␈α∂would␈α⊂have␈α∂in␈α∂Miles␈α⊂Standish's␈α∂opinion␈α∂of␈α⊂how␈α∂the␈α∂20th␈α⊂century␈α∂would␈α∂solve␈α⊂its␈α∂≡rewood
␈↓ ↓H␈↓problem.␈α∞ It␈α∞is␈α∞only␈α∞now␈α∞that␈α∞unsupported␈α∞gloomy␈α∞views␈α∞about␈α∞our␈α∞future␈α∞supplies␈α∞of␈α
materials
␈↓ ↓H␈↓begin␈αto␈αa≥ect␈α
our␈αpresent␈αbehavior,␈αe.g.␈α
a≥ect␈αProfessor␈αDonald's␈α
decision␈αabout␈αwhether␈αto␈α
teach
␈↓ ↓H␈↓American history straight or to depict it as aimed at a tragic future.

␈↓ ↓H␈↓        Nevertheless,␈α
we␈α∞can␈α
divide␈α
the␈α∞problem␈α
into␈α∞four␈α
main␈α
parts:␈α∞energy,␈α
minerals,␈α∞food␈α
and
␈↓ ↓H␈↓pollution,␈α
leaving␈αaside␈α
population␈αcontrol␈α
which␈α
Professor␈αDonald␈α
doesn't␈αaddress␈α
either.␈α To␈α
put
␈↓ ↓H␈↓the␈α∪energy␈α∀problem␈α∪simply:␈α∪the␈α∀fast␈α∪breeder␈α∪reactor␈α∀can␈α∪keep␈α∪us␈α∀supplied␈α∪with␈α∀energy␈α∪for
␈↓ ↓H␈↓hundreds␈α
of␈αmillions␈α
of␈α
years,␈αbecause␈α
it␈α
multiplies␈αour␈α
uranium␈αsupply␈α
by␈α
70,␈αallows␈α
the␈α
use␈αof
␈↓ ↓H␈↓the␈α⊃even␈α⊃more␈α⊂abundant␈α⊃thorium,␈α⊃and␈α⊃makes␈α⊂low␈α⊃grade␈α⊃ore␈α⊂economical.␈α⊃ After␈α⊃some␈α⊃tens␈α⊂of
␈↓ ↓H␈↓thousands␈α⊂of␈α∂years,␈α⊂our␈α∂descendants␈α⊂will␈α∂have␈α⊂to␈α∂use␈α⊂rather␈α∂low␈α⊂grade␈α∂ores,␈α⊂but␈α∂it␈α⊂is␈α⊂hard␈α∂to
␈↓ ↓H␈↓believe␈α∞they␈α∞can't␈α∞solve␈α∞that␈α∞problem.␈α∞ The␈α∞fact␈α∞that␈α∞the␈α∞breeder␈α∞reactor␈α∞can␈α∞solve␈α∞the␈α
problem
␈↓ ↓H␈↓doesn't show that it is the best solution, but it is surely better than letting our civilization decay.

␈↓ ↓H␈↓        Hundreds␈α∩of␈α∩minerals␈α∩are␈α∩used␈α∩in␈α∩our␈α⊃civilization,␈α∩but␈α∩the␈α∩main␈α∩metals␈α∩are␈α∩iron␈α⊃and
␈↓ ↓H␈↓aluminum.␈α At␈αpresent␈αwe␈αuse␈αrather␈αhigh␈αgrade␈α
ores,␈αand␈αit␈αis␈αcheaper␈αto␈αimport␈αhigh␈αgrade␈α
ores
␈↓ ↓H␈↓from␈α
a␈α
great␈α
distance␈α
than␈α
to␈α
use␈α
low␈α
grade␈α
domestic␈α
ores.␈α
 However,␈α
iron␈α
is␈α
≡ve␈α
percent␈α
of␈αthe
␈↓ ↓H␈↓earth's␈αcrust␈αand␈αaluminum␈αis␈αeight␈αpercent.␈α Our␈αdescendants␈αwill␈αhave␈αto␈α≡gure␈αout␈αhow␈αto␈αuse
␈↓ ↓H␈↓very␈α∂low␈α∂grade␈α∂ores,␈α∂but␈α∂it␈α∂is␈α∂comforting␈α∂to␈α∂know␈α∂that␈α∂they␈α∂will␈α∂have␈α∂a␈α⊂comfortable␈α∂economic
␈↓ ↓H␈↓margin␈αto␈αwork␈αon.␈α Namely,␈αthe␈α
extraction␈αof␈αminerals␈αincluding␈αthose␈αused␈αfor␈α
energy␈αaccounts
␈↓ ↓H␈↓for␈αless␈αthan␈αten␈αpercent␈αof␈αour␈αGNP.␈α We␈αwould␈αpreserve␈αour␈αcivilization␈αeven␈αif␈αwe␈αhad␈αto␈αput
␈↓ ↓H␈↓≡fty␈α
percent␈α
into␈α
mineral␈αextraction,␈α
but␈α
actually␈α
the␈αproductivity␈α
of␈α
mineral␈α
extraction␈αresponds
␈↓ ↓H␈↓well␈αto␈αlarge␈αscale␈αmachinery,␈α
and␈αwe␈αcan␈αexpect␈αour␈α
descendants␈αto␈αbe␈αeven␈αbetter␈α
at␈αmachinery
␈↓ ↓H␈↓than we are.

␈↓ ↓H␈↓        Professor␈α∞Donald␈α∞has␈α∞allowed␈α∞himself␈α∞to␈α∞be␈α∞panicked␈α∞by␈α∞rumors.␈α∞ Why␈α∞he␈α∞and␈α∞others␈α
so
␈↓ ↓H␈↓much␈α⊃want␈α⊃to␈α⊃believe␈α⊃that␈α⊃civilization␈α⊃is␈α⊃doomed␈α⊃is␈α⊃the␈α⊃great␈α⊃unknown␈α⊃of␈α⊃our␈α⊃time.␈α⊃ If␈α⊃the
␈↓ ↓H␈↓professors␈αand␈αlawyers␈αand␈α
judges␈αand␈αjournalists␈αof␈α
a␈αfree␈αsociety␈αlose␈α
all␈αwill␈αto␈αmake␈αit␈α
survive,
␈↓ ↓H␈↓then␈αthe␈αunfree␈αsocieties␈αwill␈αcome␈αto␈αdominate␈αthe␈αworld,␈αbecause␈αthey,␈αat␈αleast,␈αdon't␈αsu≥er␈αfrom
␈↓ ↓H␈↓this disease.